new positioning and new development of various power sources in the new power system-凯发app

china energy storage network news: in building a new power system, new energy, coal power, gas power and other forms of power need to be repositioned.
the "fourteenth five-year plan" is the key period and window period for china to implement the "double carbon" goal. the report of the twentieth national congress of the communist party of china requires "to promote carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion and growth" and "to accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system". so, what impact will the "double carbon" target have on china's power industry? in the new power system, energy supply guarantee, clean transformation, and economic development, how can all kinds of power sources find new positions and achieve new development?
strategic positioning of new energy:
"strong brigade"
new energy is the "powerful force" to achieve the "double carbon" goal, the "living force" to ensure energy supply, the "main energy" to build a new power system, the "basic way" to promote the iterative upgrading of the power industry, and the "new engine" to lead china's economic growth.
under the "double carbon" goal, because new energy is different from high-carbon fossil energy, and has the characteristics of the times, low carbon, economy, growth, and leadership, new energy development opportunities are greater than challenges, and it has an extremely important strategic position in clean transformation, energy security, and economic development. it has been given the status of "main energy" in the construction of new power system, and has also set a grand development goal. if energy is the main battleground (80%) and electricity is the main force (40%) to cope with climate change, clean energy transformation and achieve the goal of "double carbon", then new energy is the "powerful force".
in addition, replacing traditional energy with new energy is the basic law of energy development, green and low-carbon transformation of energy is the universal consensus and concerted action of the world, and new energy is the "basic way" to promote the iterative upgrading of the power industry, and will also become the "living force" to ensure china's energy security. in particular, the report of the twentieth national congress of the communist party of china "looking beyond energy", based on the existing positioning of the party central committee and the state council for new energy, and from the height of national economic development, gives new energy a new mission: as a "new engine" of strategic emerging industries leading china's economic growth.
over the past ten years, china's new energy has leapt forward and become a world leader. china's wind power installation accounts for 40% of the world's total, photovoltaic installation accounts for 36% of the world's total, and the new installed capacity of wind and solar power accounts for about half of the world's total annually. after the establishment of the "double carbon" goal, china's new energy development has set off a new climax, showing a good development prospect. in 2021, the installed capacity of new energy will reach 640 million kilowatts, and the annual power generation will exceed 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, which is basically equivalent to the domestic electricity consumption. in 2022, the installed capacity of new energy will exceed 700 million kilowatts, reaching 760 million kilowatts, accounting for about 30% of the national installed capacity.
at the same time, china's new energy development also has its own limitations, competitive pressures and market risks, which are manifested as follows: the new energy has problems of relying on the weather, random fluctuations, low effective capacity, affecting the safe and stable operation of the power system and energy supply guarantee in extreme weather; the "white-hot" market competition has brought development pressure such as resource competition, price increase of equipment components, land and sea restrictions, lag in power grid access and delivery, and local requirements for supporting industries; all new energy sources are connected to the internet at an affordable price, and participating in the electricity market transaction faces "three risks": price stampede, curve fluctuation and deviation assessment. in a word, while new energy has huge opportunities and development space, its risks and system costs are also increasing.
in the future, we must maintain our strategic focus on clean energy transformation, and not waver because of global energy shortage and power rationing in some parts of the country. through technological progress, management innovation, and transformation development, we should take the "new energy coal power", "new energy energy storage, hydrogen energy" as the direction of coupling development, and take the development of the large base of sago waste as the top priority, so as to achieve large-scale, high proportion, high quality, and market-oriented development of new energy, actively build a new power system with new energy as the main body.
at the same time, the government departments should further optimize the relevant mechanisms and rules of new energy participation in electricity market transactions, maintain the stability of policies, and implement the volume and price guarantee mechanism. standardize the order of the new energy industry, deepen the cooperation of the whole industry chain, stabilize the supply and demand of the industry, and supervise the price changes of raw materials and components in the upstream of the new energy. all localities should improve the business environment of new energy development, reduce non-technical costs, and support new energy development to run out of "acceleration".
strategic positioning of coal-fired power generation:
"ballast"
coal power is the "base camp" to start the clean transformation of energy and the "pillar" and "ballast" of energy supply in the near and medium term (2021-2035). it will play the role of "main regulating power supply", "emergency standby power supply" and "key supporting force" in building a new power system, and it is also the main carrier of reducing pollution and carbon in achieving the "double carbon" goal.
the report of the twentieth national congress of the communist party of china requires "focus on controlling fossil energy consumption". coal-fired power generation is a high-carbon fossil energy, and the challenge is greater than the opportunity. however, china's energy and resource endowment and the principle of "establish before break" still determine that coal-fired power generation plays an important supporting role in the clean transformation and energy supply guarantee.
coal-fired power generation has always been the "main power source" in china. in 2021, 47% of the installed coal power will provide 60% of the country's electricity generation; in 2022, the installed capacity of coal power will be about 1.123 billion kilowatts, accounting for 43.8% of the total, still providing 58.4% of the country's electricity generation. at the same time, coal power also supports more than 70% of the peak load of the power grid, undertakes more than 80% of the heating task, and is also the largest customer of coal enterprises and railway freight.
of course, with the acceleration of the transformation of clean energy, coal-fired power will gradually shift to "basic and system regulated power supply" in the near and medium term (2021-2035), and then to "system regulated power supply" in the long term (2035-2060), in order to ensure the safe supply of electricity and provide services for the full consumption of clean energy.
entering the "fourteenth five-year plan", coal power industry has ushered in a turnaround in the face of difficulties.
on the one hand, due to the conflict between russia-ukraine conflict, the international energy crisis, the reduction of imported coal, the shortage of domestic coal supply, the continuous high price of coal, and the limited transmission of electricity prices, coal power enterprises suffered serious losses and lacked investment and financing functions, resulting in "difficulties in survival, transformation, development, supply guarantee, and transformation". the specific performance is as follows: the income cannot make ends meet, and the debt ratio is high; the pressure of energy supply is not reduced; increased potential safety hazards; the task of upgrading and transformation is arduous; the future development prospects are worrying.
in 2021, the unit price of standard coal fired will increase by more than 60%, and the relationship between coal and electricity prices will be seriously distorted. the loss of coal and electricity enterprises nationwide will reach more than 80%, and the loss amount will exceed 300 billion yuan. among them, the integrated standard coal unit price of the five groups is as high as 961 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 136 billion yuan for coal-fired power generation and heating. in 2022, due to the implementation of the policy of "three 100%" and 20% of electricity price diversion for medium and long term contracts for electric coal, the national coal and power enterprises have reduced their losses. among them, the comprehensive standard coal unit price of the five groups increased to 1095 yuan/ton, and the loss of coal-fired power generation and heating was 78.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.6 billion yuan, but the loss area was still more than 60%.
on the other hand, after the shortage of coal (water) and power limitation in china in the past two years, all parties reassessed the status and value of coal power, and the relevant national departments increased the development goal of coal power. the policy orientation of coal power has improved compared with the "13th five-year plan", and coal power has a new turn.
therefore, on the one hand, we should learn from the experience and lessons of the eu's early coal removal, nuclear removal, withdrawal from coal power, high dependence on foreign countries and china's sports carbon reduction in the clean transformation of energy. the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy, establish a "multi-energy complementary and diversified security" energy production, supply, storage and marketing system, and firmly hold the energy job in our hands.
on the other hand, under the multiple objectives of energy supply guarantee, clean transformation, and economic development, we must work together from the aspects of enterprise main body, technological innovation, transformation and development, market mechanism, and national policies to solve the "difficult to survive, transform, develop, maintain supply, and transform" problems caused by the current coal power loss, in order to improve the multi-dimensional value of power capacity, flexible regulation, clean and low-carbon, hedge the risk of decline in the value of electric energy, ensure the sustainable development of coal power, enhance the security of energy supply, and support the construction of new power systems.
specifically, according to the new strategic positioning, coal power enterprises should abandon the traditional expansion, expansion and extensive development model, and take the "clean, efficient, flexible and bottom-up" as the direction, and take the clean and low-carbon transformation path of "coal power " and "strict construction, transformation, life extension, reduction and exit".
at present, coal power enterprises should focus on the implementation of "three reforms and linkage" and "two consortia". they need to raise the benchmark price of coal power, strengthen the "three price linkage", establish the capacity compensation mechanism of coal power supporting units in the shagehuang large base, improve the trading mechanism of the electricity market that can rise and fall, promote coal power to go out of the valley as soon as possible, and complete the short-term development goal of "three 80 million" and the "14th five-year plan" target of national increase on schedule. otherwise, it will endanger the national energy security, seriously affect the overall economic and social stability and the sustainable development of the power industry.
the role of gas-fired power generation:
"transitional energy"
gas and electricity are the "transitional energy" and "intermediate zone" for the transition from high carbon energy to low carbon energy. it is not only a "clean option" for winter heating in the northern region and the development of multi-energy cogeneration in the southeast coastal region to replace traditional coal power, but also a "flexible regulated power supply" for building a new type of power system, and also an "important partner" for multi-scenario participation in the smart energy system with multi-energy complementation and high integration of source, network, load and storage.
during the "fourteenth five-year plan", china's gas and electricity industry faces both challenges and opportunities. under the russia-ukraine conflict, the global natural gas price has soared, china's dependence on foreign countries has not decreased, and the problem of "gas availability and affordability" has not been completely solved, resulting in a decline in the marginal contribution of gas and electricity, and a profit of 2.02 billion yuan in 2021 and an overall loss of 970 million yuan in 2022 for the gas and electricity sectors of the five major groups; in the era of comprehensive bidding, the cost of gas and electricity is high, the economy is poor, and the growth is not strong. it is difficult to compete with other power sources by relying on financial subsidies, two-part electricity prices, or the transfer of power generation contracts; under the hard constraint of the "double carbon" goal, clean gas and electricity will have little impact in the near term, but in the medium and long term, it will face the risk of "reducing carbon" transformation and being replaced by low-carbon energy. moreover, the new power system has been clearly defined as "taking new energy as the main body", and the prospect of being cultivated as "one of the main energy sources" is slim.

however, there is still room for the development of gas and electricity, ushering in "three opportunities". the contradiction between the access of high proportion of new energy and the serious shortage of power grid regulation capacity is increasingly prominent. gas and electricity will play an important role as a flexible regulation power supply; the goal of "double carbon" forces china to build a new energy system and advocate a green and low-carbon life. as a clean energy, gas and electricity will play the role of replacing traditional coal power; in the medium and long term, china's natural gas supply guarantee capacity will be improved, the construction of peak-shaving facilities will be accelerated, and the interconnection of pipeline networks will be promoted. moreover, the natural gas production is expected to grow rapidly, the receiving capacity of imported lng will be significantly improved, and the eastward transfer of russian gas to china will be significantly increased. during the "fourteenth five-year plan", the state plans to reach 150 million kilowatts of gas and electricity by 2025, accounting for about 5% of the total installed capacity of power generation. in 2021, the new installed capacity will be 9.21 million kilowatts, up 9.24%; the cumulative installed capacity is 108.94 million kilowatts, accounting for 4.6%. it is expected that the development characteristics of gas and electricity will continue in the future.

in the future, the development of gas and electricity should first find the right position, and focus on playing a role in the fields of clean heat source, flexible regulation of power supply, and multi-energy cogeneration.
the second is to optimize the operation of stored gas and electricity and improve the value of kilowatt-hour electricity. through scientific and technological progress, timely load ccus technology, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and participate in carbon asset trading; implement special transformation to realize the combined supply of cold and hot electricity and water; carry out marketing, give full play to the advantages of fast start and stop, flexible operation, and being able to suppress the fluctuation of new energy and load, actively participate in the peak shaving and spot trading of the power grid, and increase the efficiency of electricity in peak period to make up for the shortage of utilization hours; unified procurement of gas turbine equipment, centralized storage of spare parts, digestion and absorption of core technologies, optimization of operation, independent maintenance, improvement of thermal power ratio and comprehensive energy efficiency, and reduction of operating costs.
the third is to accurately layout new projects and innovate development methods. focus on the development of peak-shaving and frequency modulation power stations, high-efficient multi-energy cogeneration units, and the "integration of wind and gas (storage)" project; actively explore the construction of large gas turbine power stations using mixed hydrogen and natural gas; strengthen cooperation with oil and gas production and equipment manufacturing enterprises, and strive to build an integrated gas turbine power generation industrial chain and supply chain of "oil and gas development, design consulting, technology research and development, equipment manufacturing, engineering general contracting, production operation and maintenance services"; adjust measures to local conditions, develop both light and heavy gas turbines, develop the combination of heavy gas turbines and distributed light gas turbines, and realize complementary advantages.
in the current transition period of market-oriented reform, the transition period of clean energy, and the external dependence period of oil and gas, it is still necessary to maintain policy support for gas and electricity, such as gas and electricity linkage, financial subsidies, two-part electricity prices, auxiliary service compensation, power generation right transfer, deemed energy storage capacity, and allocation of wind and electricity resources, to avoid further losses and the failure to meet the national five-year planning objectives.
strategic positioning of energy storage and hydrogen energy:
"two wings"
energy storage, including pumped storage and new type of energy storage, is considered as the "rigid demand" of the energy revolution; hydrogen energy includes green hydrogen, blue hydrogen and gray hydrogen. green hydrogen is in the ascendant and is called the "ultimate energy of the 21st century" by europe and america. "two energy" is not only a "new business form" emerging in the power industry, a "new subject" participating in the power market competition, but also an "important link" in the construction of energy production, supply, storage and marketing system, and also an indispensable "two wings" in the construction of a new power system.
entering the "fourteenth five-year plan", new energy has developed rapidly, and the construction of new power systems has been promoted. the national energy and power development plan and the special plan for energy storage and hydrogen energy as well as favorable policies have been intensively issued. the "two energy" has ushered in new development opportunities, showing a rapid development trend of scale, industrialization and marketization.
the "fourteenth five-year plan" for modern energy system requires that the large-scale application of new energy storage technologies be accelerated, and the power system be promoted to adapt to large-scale and high proportion of new energy. by 2025, the proportion of flexibly regulated power supply will reach 24%. the "fourteenth five-year plan" for electric power development further specifies the requirements, and the new system regulation capacity will be more than 200 million kilowatts by 2025. among them, the installed capacity of pumped-storage energy has reached more than 62 million kilowatts, and the capacity under construction has reached about 60 million kilowatts; the installed capacity of the new type of energy storage reaches more than 30 million kilowatts. the medium and long-term development plan for pumped storage (2021-2035) sets out the long-term goal of pumped storage. by 2030, the total production scale will be about 120 million kilowatts; by 2035, a modern pumped-storage energy industry will be formed to meet the needs of large-scale and high proportion development of new energy. similarly, china has launched the medium and long-term plan for the development of the hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035) for the first time. by 2025, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach 50000, and the amount of hydrogen production from renewable energy will reach 100000 to 200000 tons.
in addition, the national development and reform commission and the energy administration have successively issued a series of supporting documents to promote the development of "two energy", and the industrial policy has gradually become a system, including clarifying the independent market dominant position of "two energy", allowing them to participate in the power market transactions, especially requiring new energy to allocate a certain proportion of energy storage (hydrogen energy), issuing time-of-use electricity price policy, widening the peak-valley electricity price difference, implementing peak electricity price, and clarifying the two-part system of pumped storage electricity price we will improve the new energy storage pricing mechanism and encourage the development of green electricity and hydrogen production, aiming to encourage the "two energy" to accelerate and diversify development through planning guidance and policy support.
at present, driven by multiple factors such as policy, market, technology and demand, social capital is widely involved, "two energy" projects are blooming everywhere, and there are more and more application scenarios. china's "new energy energy storage", shared energy storage, hydrogen fuel cell, renewable energy hydrogen production, multi-energy complementation, and integration of source, network, load and storage are in the ascendant, and the business model is increasingly clear, and the "economic account" is more and more affordable.
2021 will be the first year for china's energy storage industry to transform from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development. the new energy storage exceeded 10 million kilowatts for the first time, reaching 10.5 million kilowatts. among them, pumped storage capacity increased by 8 million kilowatts, or 437%; new types of energy storage, such as electrochemical energy storage, thermal/cold storage, compressed air and flywheel energy storage, increased by 2.4 million kilowatts, or 54%. in 2022, it will continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend. according to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2022, the total installed capacity of energy storage has been 59.4 million kilowatts, up 37% year on year. among them, the pumped storage capacity is 46.1 million kilowatts; the new type of energy storage was 12.7 million kilowatts, a double increase over the previous year.
similarly, china is the world's largest hydrogen producer. in 2021, the hydrogen production capacity will be about 40 million tons/year, and the output will reach 33 million tons. more than 250 hydrogen refueling stations will be built, more than 6000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be operated, and the installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cells will be 172900 kilowatts.
however, we should also realize that the development of "two energy" is still in its infancy, and there is still much room for growth. safety is the primary focus of attention. the "4.16" energy storage power station safety accident in beijing is a wake-up call. how to reduce the cost of the "two energy" system is still a common demand in the industry.
at present, the scale of hydrogen production from renewable energy in china is very small. one of the main obstacles is that its cost is far higher than the cost of hydrogen production from fossil fuels. it is urgent to break through the "bottleneck" technology from the aspects of hydrogen energy preparation, storage and transportation, refueling, fuel cells, hydrogen energy storage system, etc. moreover, the proportion of energy storage and new energy generation is lower than the global average, which is easy to cause the imbalance between power supply and demand.
affected by the rising price of upstream raw materials, the cost of energy storage battery system has risen. it is necessary to further technical innovation, improve the energy storage production and manufacturing industry chain, formulate the overall plan for the layout and capacity allocation of energy storage in all links of the new power system, establish a unified supervision platform for shared energy storage, and scientifically evaluate the scale of energy storage allocation and the value of energy storage services. although there are more and more energy storage business models, such as earning the peak-valley price difference on the power generation side of the spot market, charging new energy lease fees and capacity electricity fees, the profit is unstable and the risk is high, which requires the government to exempt the transmission and distribution electricity price and fund surcharges, improve the time-of-use electricity price mechanism, and encourage technological innovation.
in view of the above problems and the future development of "two capabilities", we should focus on making strategic plans, accelerating technological innovation, encouraging project investment, promoting commercial operation, and building supporting certification, standards and regulatory systems.
at present, it is necessary to plan and allocate the scale and proportion of local energy storage, optimize the level of energy storage layout, orderly guide the pace of independent energy storage/shared energy storage construction, and avoid resource waste; actively promote new energy storage technology research and development, equipment manufacturing, system integration design, project construction, intelligent operation and maintenance and other businesses to improve energy storage security and progressiveness. in particular, a number of system-friendly new energy projects with energy storage and large clean energy bases for trans-regional transmission should be arranged on the power generation side, and energy storage should be reasonably arranged on the power grid side around key nodes, terminal and remote areas, and important load user needs, and the user side should explore the integrated development of energy storage around end users.
at the same time, we should actively research and develop technologies and business models for the development of the entire hydrogen energy industry chain, accelerate the construction of green electricity hydrogen production projects, carry out renewable energy electrolysis water hydrogen production, hydrogen fuel cell comprehensive energy supply services, carbon dioxide capture and comprehensive utilization of hydrogen energy, far-reaching offshore wind power hydrogen production, gas turbine hydrogen blending combustion, etc., and give appropriate preference to the demonstration projects in terms of hydrogen energy layout, institutional system, and policy incentives, improve the enthusiasm of investment, make the industrial chains effectively linked, and form a joint force of innovation.
strategic positioning of clean power sources such as hydropower and nuclear power:
"an indispensable and important member"
strategic positioning of clean power sources such as hydropower and nuclear power: "indispensable and important members". hydropower, nuclear power, biomass energy, marine energy, geothermal energy, etc. are not only "important members" of the green and low-carbon energy family and the building of an energy power, but also "important members" of the realization of multiple energy complementation and the high integration of source, network, load and storage, and will gain new development opportunities. the report of the twentieth national congress of the communist party of china calls for the overall planning of hydropower development and ecological protection, and the active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power.
strategic positioning of clean and low-carbon technology:
"the driving force of clean energy transformation"
strategic positioning of clean and low-carbon technology: "driving force of clean energy transformation". cogeneration of heat and power, clean heating, ultra-low emissions, energy conservation and efficiency improvement, ccus and other technologies for reducing pollution and reducing carbon, new energy generation technology, multi-energy co-generation technology, source-network charge-storage synergy technology, new power system technology, and comprehensive energy service technology are the "driving force" for energy clean transformation, improving the economy and growth of various types of power sources, and building new power systems, and will also usher in major business opportunities.
in short, under the "double carbon" goal, with the rapid development of new energy in china, the safe and stable operation of the traditional power system and the energy supply guarantee will be more and more affected. it is urgent to build a clean and low-carbon, safe and controllable, flexible and efficient, intelligent and friendly, open and interactive new power system. at present, the construction of the new power system is still at the initial stage of exploration. it is like a super-large aircraft that has just taken off and cannot fly smoothly. it needs the coordination and protection of various power sources.
therefore, in the process of building a new power system and achieving the goal of "double carbon", new energy is the "powerful force", coal power is the "ballast stone", energy storage and hydrogen energy are the "two wings", clean low-carbon technology is the "driving force", gas power generation is the "transitional energy", and clean power sources such as hydropower and nuclear power are the "indispensable and important members".
at the same time, the different functional positioning of various types of power supplies also reflects the trend of travel alienation in the new power system. in addition to the common value of electric energy, the value of electric power commodities can be subdivided into electric capacity value, flexible adjustment value and green and low-carbon value. it is suggested that the country further improve the trading mechanism of electric power market, green power green card market and carbon market, promote the coordinated development of various types of power supplies, and achieve energy supply guarantee, clean transformation the organic unity of multiple objectives such as economic development.